Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, 78, took the oath for his seventh term today. The ceremony was lavish. The turnout, stage-managed. His victory, never in doubt.
Whitehall is rattled. But not surprised.
The official line from the Foreign Office is restrained. 'We note the inauguration. We urge dialogue.' Translation: we have no leverage.
Museveni has been in power since 1986. That’s 35 years. He has outlasted five British prime ministers. He will outlast this one.
The election in January was a farce. Opposition leader Bobi Wine was placed under house arrest. Internet blackouts. Arrests. Suppression. The usual toolkit of a would-be autocrat.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth for the UK: Museveni is a key ally. He sends troops to fight al-Shabab in Somalia. He supports the AU mission. He is a bulwark against instability in the Horn of Africa.
So Whitehall does what it always does. Issues a mild statement. Twists its hands. Moves on.
Yet the erosion is real. Museveni has dismantled term limits. He has muzzled the media. He has turned the judiciary into a rubber stamp. The country that was once a beacon of stability in a volatile region is sliding.
The backbenches are restless. Labour MPs are demanding action. Some Tories, too. But the Foreign Office knows the realities. Rwanda is no better. Ethiopia is in crisis. You can't have principles when you need partners.
Museveni’s seventh term will be his last, he says. He said that last time. And the time before.
The real story is what comes next. The succession question hangs over Kampala like a storm cloud. Museveni's son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is being groomed. The military is being stacked. The opposition is being crushed.
Whitehall is watching. But will it act? Don't bet on it.
The game in Uganda is a long game. And Museveni is still playing it.
