The Amazon rainforest is showing signs of a remarkable turnaround. New satellite data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research reveals a 30% drop in deforestation over the past year. It is the largest decrease in nearly a decade.

Environmentalists are cautiously optimistic. But many warn that the battle is far from over.

The data, released on Monday, covers the period from August 2023 to July 2024. During this time, the Amazon lost 5,000 square kilometres of forest cover. That is down from 7,200 square kilometres the previous year.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hailed the numbers. “We are turning the tide,” he said in a televised address. “Our policies are working.”

Lula has made environmental protection a cornerstone of his administration. He took office in January 2023, vowing to reverse the policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. Under Bolsonaro, deforestation surged. He weakened enforcement agencies and encouraged development.

But experts say the recent decline is not solely due to government action. “The global economic context has played a role,” said Dr. Ana Costa, a researcher at the University of São Paulo. “Commodity prices have fallen, reducing the incentive to clear land for cattle and soy.”

The data comes from the DETER system, which uses satellites to monitor deforestation in real-time. It alerts authorities to illegal activity. This year, fines for environmental crimes have risen by 40% under a renewed enforcement push.

Indigenous territories have been particularly effective. In the Xingu Indigenous Park, deforestation dropped by 80%. “When we have control over our lands, we protect the forest,” said Chief Raoni Metuktire, a prominent indigenous leader.

But challenges remain. The Amazon is vast, spanning nine countries. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell, but increased in neighbouring countries like Bolivia and Colombia. Illegal logging, mining and land grabbing persist.

The dry season has also become more intense. This year, the Amazon experienced a severe drought, leading to widespread fires. Satellite images show thick smoke covering parts of the region. More than 1,000 fires were detected in July alone.

“The reduction in deforestation is a big deal, but it is not enough,” said Dr. Marina Silva, Brazil’s Environment Minister. “We need to achieve zero deforestation by 2030. That means tackling the illegal economy that drives forest loss.”

Lula’s government has announced a new plan: the Amazon Security Programme. It will deploy 1,000 extra police officers to the region, targeting organised crime. The programme also includes funding for sustainable livelihoods.

International pressure has also intensified. The European Union is considering a ban on imports linked to deforestation. The US has pledged $500 million to the Amazon Fund.

But some critics argue that these measures are too slow. “The forest is still burning,” said Greenpeace campaigner Mariana Campos. “We need immediate action, not promises.”

Satellite data is a powerful tool, but it has limitations. The DETER system can miss small-scale deforestation. And it cannot detect degradation: when the forest is damaged but not cleared.

Nevertheless, the new numbers offer a glimmer of hope. The Amazon stores billions of tonnes of carbon. Protecting it is crucial for global climate goals.

“If we can sustain this trend, the Amazon can recover,” said Dr. Costa. “But it requires long-term commitment. The world is watching.”