France is executing a calculated strategic pivot. The upcoming Kenya summit, ostensibly focused on economic partnerships, represents a deeper manoeuvre: a bid to sever the lingering threads of colonial dependency while simultaneously countering Britain’s aggressive expansion of influence across the continent. This is not diplomatic goodwill. This is threat mitigation.
For decades, France maintained a network of client states in West and Central Africa through the Franc CFA, military basing, and opaque business deals. Yet the tide is turning. Recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French forces, and the narrative of neo-colonialism has become a liability. Paris now seeks to rebrand itself as a partner of equals, but the timing is suspect. Why now? Because Britain is executing its own strategic pivot.
London has been quietly but effectively expanding military and intelligence cooperation with nations like Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana. The British Army’s new ‘African Union’ training mission, coupled with MI6’s burgeoning cyber partnerships, signals a renewed commitment to the region. This is not altruism. It is a hedge against Chinese Belt and Road investments and Russian Wagner Group incursions. Britain sees Africa as a critical theatre for resource security and counter-terrorism, and France sees its own influence eroding.
Hardware and logistics define success in Africa. France has historically relied on rapid deployment of special forces and air mobility from bases in Djibouti, Chad, and Ivory Coast. But these bases are increasingly contested. Britain, by contrast, is investing in maritime infrastructure: new naval facilities in Kenya, expanded drone operations in the Sahel, and signals intelligence cooperation with Somali maritime forces. The UK is playing the long game, building logistical nodes that can support both humanitarian and combat operations.
France’s push for a ‘new deal’ at the Kenya summit must be viewed through this lens. Expect Macron to offer soft power concessions: debt relief, technology transfers, and cultural initiatives. But the real objective is to secure continued access to uranium supplies from Niger and to maintain a foothold in the Indian Ocean. The summit will be a chess match of pledges versus deliverables.
The intelligence failures are instructive. French military intelligence underestimated the speed of the anti-French sentiment in the Sahel. Similarly, British assessments of Somali piracy threats were reactive rather than proactive. Both nations now face a shared adversary: non-state actors exploiting governance vacuums. Yet instead of coordinating, they compete.
For UK-based readers, the implications are clear. Whitehall must not be complacent. France’s diplomatic pivot could destabilise British gains if Paris decides to undercut London’s bilateral agreements. The Kenya summit is a test. If Macron can secure a new security memorandum with Nairobi, it will be a direct challenge to Britain’s privileged status.
Cyber warfare adds another layer. Both nations are vulnerable. French energy firms in Africa have been targeted by state-linked hackers, and British mining operations face similar threats. Yet the summit’s agenda likely omits cyber defence cooperation. This is a gap hostile actors will exploit.
In summary, France’s decolonisation drive is a strategic necessity, not a moral choice. Britain’s alliance building is a counter-balance, not a partnership. The battlefield is Africa, and the weapons are contracts, base access, and intelligence sharing. The winner will determine the continent’s security architecture for the next decade.
Dominic Croft, Defence & Security Analyst.
